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Research Article | Volume 3 Issue 1 (Jan-June, 2022) | Pages 1 - 7
The Influence of Economic Growth on Trend of Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery Attacks against Ships in Nigeria
 ,
 ,
 ,
1
Department of Transport Management Technology, Federal University of Technology, Owerri
2
Department of Maritime Management Technology, Federal University of Technology, Owerri
Under a Creative Commons license
Open Access
Received
Dec. 3, 2021
Revised
Jan. 4, 2022
Accepted
Jan. 29, 2022
Published
Feb. 10, 2022
Abstract

Given the positions of several empirical studies supporting the routine activity theory and frustration aggression theory that economic deprivation suffered by the coastal states in Nigeria in the face of growing output in the maritime transport subsector, is responsible for maritime insecurity in Nigeria; the study investigated the influence of the growth on the trend criminality and insecurity in the subsector. It employed time series secondary data covering a period of 20 years from 2000 to 2018 in which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector, (MAREV) and youth unemployment rate (UNRATE) are used as proxies for economic growth and the frequency or number of pirate attacks against ships trading in Nigeria waters was used as proxy for sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships. Descriptive statistics and Log linear multiple regression analysis cum trend analysis methods were employed to analyze the data obtained. The results show that, the model showing the relationship depicting the influence of GDP growth, growth in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector and unemployment rate on pirate attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in the waters of Nigeria is: InPIRATE attacks = 2.760 - 1.160 In GDP - 0.05InMAREV + 0.258InUNRATE. This implies that, with a unit annual increase in GDP, pirate attacks against ships decreases by 3.81units. Similarly, with a unit annual increase in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector, sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in the waters of Nigeria decreases by 0.007 units while a unit increase in youth unemployment rate increases pirate attacks against ships in the Nigeria waters by 0.158units. The model showing the trend of pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters over the period relative to the trends of GDP, revenue generated by the maritime transport sector and youth unemployment is: PIRATE attacks = 23.386 - 0.105Xt + Ɛ; which shows a decreasing trend in attacks. It was recommended that economic growth should be translated into opportunities for economic empowerment of unemployed youth in other to bring about a significant decrease in sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in Nigeria waters.

Keywords
INTRODUCTION

Transportation expands opportunities to acquire and sell varieties of commodity necessary for industrial and manufacturing systems. Sometimes, this important function of transportation in logistics can be obstructed by some externalities in the form of attacks on the vehicular means and its traffic types (passengers and freight). Shipping has for a long time been recognized as one of the strong catalysts for socio-economic development. This means of transport is one of the cheapest and efficient means of transportation over a long distance. However, shipping operations have suffered a lot of challenges in the area of insecurity within the maritime domains and corridors.

 

Many theories support the fact that the development of transport particularly maritime transport catalyzes economic growth, economic development and generates employment. Thus, there is a general view that transport is the fore runner of economic growth and development; and the motto of the seaports as the gateways into the nation’s economy also supports these assertions. Economic growth in this context is viewed as the increase in the production of economic goods and services, compared from one period of time to another [1,2].       


 

Tatyana [1], notes that the aggregate economic growth within an economy over a given period of time is measured in terms of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the Gross National Product (GNP), while noting that alternative metrics are also used sometimes. In simple terms, economic growth is the increase in aggregate production of goods and services within a given economy [1,2]. This also implies that increase in capital goods, labor force, technology and human capital can all contribute to economic growth estimated as the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in the economy or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is believed that economic growth leads to increase in purchasing power, incomes, employment and higher standard of living which in turn will induce a decline in crime rates and youth criminality such as piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade. O’Neill [2], also notes that economic growth when sustained over the long-term leads to economic development, which is the process whereby low-income economies and nations are transformed into modern industrialized economies. Thus, economic development emanates through sustained economic growth and is the all-round transformation of an economy involving qualitative and quantitative improvements in both economic and non-economic indices such as social welfare, employment and unemployment statistics, income levels, early childhood education and literacy levels, criminal justice systems reform and other human capita development indices.

 

Thus, it is right to assert as expected that economic growth and development should cause declining trend on crime rates and economic hardship induced criminality, youth restiveness and youth unemployment rate in the economy, while also improving the output, income and living standard of the working population. This declining youth unemployment rate and improved income cum living standard should as well induce a declining trend on youth involvement in criminality, sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in the Nigerian territorial waters. Whether this is the situation in the Nigerian case at present, is yet to be investigated by any empirical study. Youth unemployment in this context is viewed as the percentage of youth between the ages of 15 and 32 years compared to the total work force that are ready to work but are still unemployed as a result of unavailability of employment opportunities in Nigeria. This is because most pirates and sea robbers involved in attacks against ships in the Nigeria waters are youth between those age brackets.

 

The International Maritime Bureau [13], defines piracy and armed robbery against ship as “an act of boarding or attempting to board any ship with the apparent intent to commit theft or any other crime and with the apparent intent or capability to use force in the furtherance of that act”. The definition encompasses both actual and attempted attacks, whether the ship is in port, at anchorage, or in the high sea. Thus, for documentation and data collection purposes, the act of sea robbery is viewed to constitute the same in the process of the crime as sea robbery whether committed outside or inside the 12 nautical miles zone of nation’s territorial waters, the exclusive economic zone and the internal waters [3]. The legal differences between sea piracy and sea robbery however are that sea robbery against ships is committed inside the 12 nautical mile zones of a nation’s territorial waters while only attacks committed outside of the territorial waters and outside the jurisdiction of a coastal state, i.e. in the high sea is considered piracy [3]. IMB further defines piracy as any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act aimed at forcefully boarding a ship with apparent intent to commit illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depression, committed for purposes of private ends by the crew or passengers of a pirate boat or aircraft in the high seas. In this study, we use the word piracy to mean both types of acts (armed robbery and piracy). This is because, the statistical reports on sea piracy from the International Maritime Bureau [13] and other sources upon which the study is based does not distinguish between the duo of piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships.

 

The United States (U.S) office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) documented 146 incidents of piracy and armed robbery in the Gulf of Guinea in 2018, a 24% increase over 2017 records. The increase in these attacks confirms that the gulf of Guinea’s status as the locus for maritime insecurity in Africa, which had long been associated with the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. Rising piracy and armed robbery in the Gulf of Guinea reflects the region’s growing prominence in global maritime trade, as well as capacity and coordination gaps among the region’s navies. Maritime piracy imposes direct cost on the immediate victims of the attacks, the crews, the ships and their cargoes and the shipping companies. Merchant seamen may be injured or killed; ships and cargoes stolen and higher insurance rates and operating costs borne by companies [4]. 

  

Maritime piracy in Nigeria has been attributed to several factors. Some writers have attributed the situation to the disorder in the oil industry in Nigeria, while some attributed the situation to a combination of economic optimism by existing criminal gangs who claimed to be fighting for fairer distribution of the country’s vast oil wealth, others have blamed it on bad governance in most Gulf of Guinea states who parade worse indices’ of human development such as unemployment and poverty, with declining opportunities for legitimate livelihood. Pohlit [5], notes that while the Federal government of Nigeria and the oil companies split profits roughly 60–40, disbursement of economic benefits to local authorities and inhabitants of Niger Delta rarely occur. This economic deprivation in the midst of plenty according to many experts creates fertile ground for sea piracy and maritime insecurity [6]. Over the past four decades, Nigeria has recorded unprecedented increase in material wealth generated from the sale of ocean energy resources. Yet according to a world bank report, about 80 percent of Nigeria oil and gas revenues accrue to just 10 percent of the country’s population. The 90 percent of the population receive the remaining 20 percent [5]. This situation is seen as the main reason for youth criminality and insecurity in the region, which has gradually evolved into a more organized type of sea piracy [6]. Nigeria has over time adopted a combative approach using the military and the Navy to fight sea piracy and maritime insecurity in the waters of Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea. The militarization and combative approaches have however not yielded expected results as the attacks continue unabated, suggesting a problem situation that the current anti-piracy approaches and strategies cannot sustainably be employed to end the scourge of attacks against ships in Nigeria; thus, the need for new studies that will provide empirical evidences for the adoption of a root-cause approach towards addressing the issue of maritime insecurity in Nigeria. 

 

 For example, the seeming economic growth in Nigeria over the years evidenced by the GDP and increasing revenue earnings of the maritime transport sub-sector suggests the availability of economic wealth in the maritime sector of Nigeria, the increasing youth unemployment rate in the face of increasing economic wealth implies the presence of economically frustrated youthful population as potential criminal offenders with motivation to attack the growing wealth carried in ships. Thus, there is a seeming problem of economic frustration as a result of the failure of Government to translate the economic growth into employment and economic empowerment to discourage greater number of the youthful population in the coastal states from engaging in acts of piracy against ships in Nigeria waters. This is viewed as being responsible for sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in Nigeria. Thus, adopting root-cause approach towards addressing the issue of piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in Nigeria requires that the economic growth being recorded in the Country and the maritime sub-sector be translated into opportunities for economic empowerment of youth. To do this, there is need to first determine the relationship depicting the influence of economic growth on the trend of sea piracy and armed robbery against ships in Nigeria. This will provide an empirical backup for translating economic growth into the achievement of the eradication of criminal attacks against ships in Nigeria via improved living standards, income, youth employment and economic development, rather than the militarization of the waterways as currently in practice. Since available empirical literatures has not provided the above relationships, this study views it as a central problem to bridge this gap in literature by estimating the influence of economic growth and youth unemployment on trend of sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in Nigeria.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Nnadi, Nwokedi, Nwokoro and Onyemechi [3], analyzed Maritime Piracy and Armed Robbery in the Gulf of Guinea Maritime Domain. According to Nnadi et. al [3], the Gulf of Guinea in the past years witnessed serious challenges of maritime piracy and armed robbery attacks. The study employed ex-post facto research design approach in which secondary was used for the study. Trend analysis model and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to analyze the data. It was found that there was significant variation in piracy and armed robbery attacks among the Gulf of Guinea countries and that the greatest of attacks occurred in Nigeria. There was also a significant variation in piracy attacks among the coastal zones of Nigeria with the greatest attacks occurring in Lagos ports and anchorages within the period. There the study noted that there was a decreasing trend of attacks within the period.

 

Onuoha [7], examined the root cause of perennial challenges of piracy and maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea maritime domain. Onuoha [7], notes that the Nigeria State which recorded the highest attacks against ships in the region during the period was established to serve as an instrument for the domination and exploitation of resources by the colonial powers in Europe. As a result, the postcolonial African state has not been able to refit that warped design which has led to the state’s incapacity or unwillingness to accomplish even the most basic sovereign duties including establishing security, order and social cohesion. It was believed that the Nigerian state was designed from purely utilitarian point to suit the economic and political interest of the colonial masters. Thus the country seems to have lost from independence any real ability to exercise sovereign rights over her maritime domain. As a result, the State is lacking the ability to maximize resources, provide clear vision for maritime governance and is almost holistically constrained in capacity to provide maritime security [7]. As a result, negligence by the Nigerian state account for above 50 percent for piracy in the GOG maritime domain. 

 

In a similar study, Onuoha [8], investigated the sea piracy and security challenges facing business operators in Bayelsa state, all respondents sampled in the study affirmed that, a major causal factor of pirate attacks in Nigerian waters in the GOG is the perceived economic neglect and marginalization of the coastal states in the Niger Delta States in Nigeria which led to rise of militant groups coordinated by MEND, championing the call for resource control. The militant groups operate by hostage-taking of oil workers, illegal destruction of oil storages and production facilities, attacks on oil vessels, illicit oil trade, kidnapping and ransom receipts among others. The Federal Government amnesty programme of 2009 caused over 15,000 militants to surrender about 2760 assorted guns, 287, 445 ammunitions of different calibers, 8 gunboats, 763 dynamites, 1090 dynamite caps, 3,155 magazines and several other military armorial equipment, such as dynamite cables, bullet-proof jackets and jack-knives, yet the programme couldn’t bring to stop, piracy and armed robbery incidences in the area.

 

Studies by Nwokedi, Odumodu, Anyanwu and Dike [6], on frustration aggression approach assessment of sea piracy and armed robber in Nigerian industrial trawler fishery sub-sector of the blue economy found that the average output lost per fishing crew death per annum (human capital death) occasioned by pirate attacks between 2007 and 2013 is $22187.60. The aggregate output lost by the economy due to death of about 60 fishing crew members between 2007 and 2013 is $1,275,257.505, representing an average annual total output loss of $182, 179.64 per year. The above stated losses represent only the indirect output losses to pirate attacks due to deaths alone in the industrial fishery subsector of Nigeria. The findings of the study also indicates that the trawler fishery sector lost an aggregate of N20,400,000,000 ($56,666,666.67) revenue to pirate attacks between 2007 and 2013 indicating average direct financial losses of N3,342,857,142.86 ($9,285,714.29) per annum over the period. By implication, a cumulative of N23,859,092,701.62 ($66275257.52) was lost to pirate attacks as direct revenue losses and output losses due to death of fishing crew members in the sub-sector. Piracy and armed robbery attacks against the trawler fishery sector in Nigeria alone induces an annual cost of N3,408,441,814.5 ($9,467,893.92) as cumulative cost (direct financial losses and cost of lost output due death of human capital) per annum [6].

 

The international maritime bureau [14], note that, 65 percent of pirate attacks in the Nigeria maritime domain of the Gulf of Guinea use guns and arms mainly to kidnap for ransom purpose and steal cargoes, cash and valuables. Piracy in Nigerian maritime domain over the years was fuelled by illegal oil trading and oil theft activities which was a much more organized crime with links to foreign citizens and organizations than piracy itself. With the implementation of the IMO International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS code) in Nigeria, a decline in attacks particularly in the ports is expected particularly in Lagos ports and its attendant anchorages.

 

Studies by Anamika [9], on understanding contemporary maritime piracy, the research employed two complementary research strategies designed to examine the character, magnitude and underlying dynamic of contemporary piracy in the 21st century, two primary international data sources on piracy; information collected by the International Maritime Bureau and the United States Office of Naval Intelligence were used. His research employed a case study combined with a historical/policy analysis of Somali piracy because of that nation’s dominating role in the evolution of contemporary piracy and the research examined the conditions that underlie the emergence and growth of maritime piracy in Somalia, a country without a history of piracy.

 

Nwalozie [10], in his work on exploring Contemporary Sea Piracy in Nigeria, the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Guinea, thematically explores contemporary piracy in the African state of Nigeria, the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Guinea. According to him, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and in particular Nigeria has had a protracted history. It is traceable down to the trans-Atlantic slave trade era, even though the slave trade predates it. In conclusion, the study notes that contemporary piracy is a national and transnational project for all the stakeholders to work in unison, to ensure the safe navigation of vessels carrying people and goods within the Nigerian littoral environment and the Gulf of Guinea. To do so, it will help boost economic development in the region [10].

 

In another study, Jean [11], in his work maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships: exploring the legal and the operational solutions. The case of Madagascar, according to him, maritime piracy and armed robbery against ship are one of the contemporary challenges of the maritime industry and that the two phenomena have a global impact on maritime trade and security. The study highlighted the intricacy of addressing maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships and the necessity of federating and integrating several components, he concluded by advocating the value of coordination and cooperation at the national, regional and international levels against piracy.

 

Essien and Adongoi [12], in a study on Sea Piracy and Security Challenges of Maritime Business Operators in Bayelsa State Nigeria, the study notes that, the African seaways namely; the coast of the Horn of Africa (HOA) and the Gulf of Aden (GOA); in the East coast of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea (GOG); in the West coast of Africa, from the year 2007 to date have become mine fields for sea pirates, witnessing intense attacks against ships [12]. This threatens maritime security in the zones affecting negatively global trade flows and economic growth in Africa from the foregoing, it is evident that most empirical studies on the issue of piracy and armed robbery against ships in Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea dwelt more on identifying the piracy hotspots and regions where the most attacks are carried out against ships as well as the cost implications. For example, the works of Nnadi et al [3]; Assien and Adongio and Onuoha [7], all agreed that Nigeria waters contribute over 50% of pirate attacks against ships in the Gulf of Guinea. Many studies are also in agreement that sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in the regional and global waters impose severe economic consequences on businesses, maritime operations and national income. For example, the studies of Nwokedi et al [6], Onuoha [8] and IMB [14], were able to determine the economic costs and impacts of sea piracy and armed robbery on regional and national economies as well as on the activities and operations of the shipping industry. 

 

Though many studies also agreed that sea piracy and armed in Nigeria and gulf Guinea waters stem from economic deprivation emanating from youth unemployment in the coastal states of Nigeria which are at the same time host to the wealth of the nation; no empirical study seems to have been able to establish the empirical relationship between economic growth, growth in maritime sector economy and youth unemployment rate on one hand and sea piracy and armed attacks against ships trading in Nigerian waters on the other hand. This is a major gap which the current study seeks to fill. Studies by Onuoha [7] and Nwokedi et al [6], agreed in line with the propositions of routine activity theory and the frustration aggression theory that, the drive by the unemployed youth of the coastal zones towards economic emancipation in the face of overflowing wealth has led to the vexed issue of piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in the waters of Nigeria. There is therefore need to develop an understanding of the empirical relationship evidencing the influence of economic growth on sea piracy and armed robbery attacks in the waters of Nigeria and the GOG. This seems to be conspicuously lacking in available literatures and forms the basic gap which the current study aims to bridge.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study in which time series data on the number of pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector and the youth unemployment rate covering a period of 19 years between 2000 and 2018 were obtained from secondary sources and used for the study. While data on GDP, revenue generated and youth unemployment rate over the period were obtained from the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, data on sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in Nigeria waters were sourced from the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) database. 

 

Using the Log linear multiple regression method, the relationship showing the influence of economic growth (GDP), revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector (MAREV) and unemployment rate (UNRATE) on sea piracy and armed robbery (PIRATE attacks) against ships trading in the waters of Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea was estimated. The model specification is as shown below:

 

InPIRATEattacks = β0 + β1InGDP + β2InMAREV + β3InUNRATE + Ɛ ---------------- (1)

 

 

Where:

In PIRATE attacks = Natural log of number/frequency of pirate attacks against ships

In GDP =Natural log Gross Domestic Product as a measure of economic growth

In MAREV =Natural log of revenue generated by the maritime sub-sector of the economy

In UNRATE = Natural log of unemployment rate.

RESULTS

The result shows that the average piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in Nigeria waters per annum over the 19 years period is 22.32 attacks with a standard deviation of 10.11 while the average economic growth (GDP) per annum over period is 49398.7368(billion) naira with standard deviation of 16132.189. Similarly, the average growth in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector of the ocean economy per year over the 19 years covered in the study is 3770.7368 (million) naira with standard deviation of 674.699 while the average growth in youth unemployment rate per annum over the same period is 9.95% with standard deviation 1.62.

 

The coefficient of correlation R which measures the degree of correlation between the dependent and independent variables is 0.82. This implies the existence of about 82% correlation between pirate attacks against ships on one hand and economic growth, increase in maritime transport sector revenue and unemployment rate on the other hand. This equally shows a high positive correlation of about 82% between pirate attacks against ships in the Nigeria waters, growth in Gross Domestic product (GDP), growth in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector and growth in youth unemployment.

 

The model showing the relationship depicting the influence of economic growth on pirate attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in the waters of Nigeria and Gulf of Guinea is:

 

In PIRATE attacks = 2.760 - 1.160 In GDP - 0.05InMAREV + 0.258 In UNRATE -------- (2)

 

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics

 MeanStd. DeviationN
PIRATE attacks22.315810.1107919
GDP49398.726316132.1891819
MAREV3770.7368674.6993419
UNRATE9.95111.6204019

Source: Author’s calculation


Table 2: Influence of Economic Growth (GDP), Revenue Generated by the Maritime Industry and Unemployment rate on Pirate Attacks in Nigeria

ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate
10.820a0.6730.58010.88032
ANOVAa
ModelSum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig.
1Regression64.386321.4626.181.041b
Residual1775.71915118.381  
Total1840.10518   
Coefficientsa
ModelUnstandardized CoefficientsStandardized CoefficientstSig.
BStd. ErrorBeta
 (Constant)2.7609.168 1.7400.102
In GDP-1.160.343-.056-2.2510.005
In MAREV-0.050.242-2.455-3.5940.031
In UNRATE0.258.865.0842.0830.035
               

a. Dependent Variable: In PIRATE attacks

b. Predictors: (Constant), In UNRATE, In GDP, In MAREV

Source: Authors Calculation

 

Table 3: Trend of Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery Attacks in Nigeria Waters Relative to the Trend of Economic, Maritime Industry Revenue and Unemployment rate

Variable

          Model Summary

Parameter Estimates/coefficients

mean

r2

F

df1

df2

Sig.

Constant

B1

t

Sig.

PIRATEattacks

22.3158

0.003

0.059

1

17

0.812

23.368

-0.105

-0.242

0.812

GDP

49398.72

0.981

892.3

1

17

0.00

21000.296

2839.84

29.873

0.00

MAREV

3770.7368

0.901

154.51

1

17

0.00

2632.737

113.800

12.430

0.00

UNRATE

9.9511

0.252

5.739

1

17

0.028

8.504

0.145

2.396

.028

Source: Authors Calculation

 

This implies that a unit annual increase in GDP (economic growth) causes the pirate attacks against ships to decrease by 1.160units. The implication is that if economic growth is translated into improved standard of living of the population living with the economy, employment generation and human capital development, sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in the waters of Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea will with time naturally die, putting to an end the spate of maritime insecurity in Nigeria.

 

Similarly, a unit annual increase in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector induces a 0.05 unit decrease in sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in the waters of Nigeria while a unit increase in youth unemployment rate increases pirate attacks against ships in the Nigeria waters by 0.258units. 

 

The implication is that while unit growths in GDP and revenue generated by the maritime transport sector leads to decreasing attacks by 1.160 and 0.05 units respectively, growth in youth unemployment rate increases attacks by 0.258units.

 

The coefficient of determination r2 which measures the explanatory power of the model is 0.67. This indicates that only about 67% variation in sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in Nigeria is explained by the explanatory variables.

 

The result of the study as shown in table4.2.2 above indicate that the mean attacks over the 19 years period (2000-2018) covered in the study is 22.32 attacks per annum. The model equation showing the trend of attacks against ships over the period is:

 

PIRATEattacks = 23.386 - 0.105Xt + Ɛ ------------------- (3)

 

The negative coefficient of regression indicates that relative to the growth in the economy over the period, piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in Nigeria now flows a decreasing trend. The results also reveals that a unit increase in time (in years) over the period causes a 0.105-unit decrease in pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters. This corroborates the Findings of Nnadi et al [3], who found that attacks against ships in Nigeria up to 2015 follows a decreasing trend. Similarly, the respective coefficient of regression values of 2839.84, 113.80 and 0.145 for GDP, MAREV and UNRATE, indicate that both GDP, MAREV and UNRATE all witnessed an increasing trend over the period. 

 

The implication is that the increasing rate of economic growth has not been able to be translated into enough employment opportunities as to cause a declining trend in youth unemployment rate. This portends the danger of increasing the rate of attacks against ships in Nigeria waters, given the positive relationship between youth unemployment rate and sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in the waters of Nigeria. The following equations show the respective trends of GDP, revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector and unemployment over the period.

 

GDP = 21000.296 + 2839.84Xt + Ɛ ----------- (4)

MAREV = 2632.737 + 113.800Xt + Ɛ --------- (5)

UNRATE = 8.504 + 0.145Xt + Ɛ -------------- (6)

 

The test of significance of the influence of growth in GDP on sea pirate and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in Nigeria as shown in table4.3 shows a t-cal of -2.251, t-critical of 2.10, p-value of 0.005. Since p-value is less than the alpha value of 0.05 (0.005<0.05), we conclude that there is significant relationship between GDP growth and pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters. However, the relationship between growth in GDP and pirate attacks as aforementioned in table 4.2 is such that as economic growth measured by the GDP increases, pirate attack decreases. By implication, the growth in the economy can be employed to achieve reduction in attacks against ships in the region by translating it into improved living standard and opportunities for the people, so as to cause significant decline in criminal attacks against ships trading in Nigeria. 

 

Similarly, the test of significance of the influence of maritime transport revenue on sea piracy and armed robbery in Nigeria shows a t-cal of-3.594, t-critical value of 2.10 and p-value of 0.031. Again since 0.031<0.05, we conclude that there is significant relationship between growth in revenue generated by maritime transport sub-sector and attacks against ships trading in Nigeria waters between 2000 and 2018. The relationship as aforementioned indicates that growth in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector leads to declining attacks against ships in the waters of Nigeria. 

 

Lastly, the test of significance of influence of youth unemployment rate on pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters shows a t-cal of 2.083, t-critical of 2.10 and p-value of 0.035. We thus conclude that there is significant relationship between youth unemployment rate as a measure of economic deprivation and pirate attacks against ships in Nigerian waters. The relationship between pirate attacks and youth unemployment rate is such that increasing unemployment rate increases pirate attacks against ships trading in Nigeria.

CONCLUSION

The influence of economic growth on sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in Nigerian waters as shown by the findings of the study is such that growth in GDP causes a decline in the attacks against ships. Similarly, growth in the annual revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector causes a declining trend in the number of attacks against ships. The implication of these being that as economic growth is translated into opportunities for income generation and improved living standards among the youth, a greater number of the attackers/pirates are caused to abandon the attacks for better economic opportunities and subsequently, the attacks reduce. However, the decline trend of piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships over the period is not significant, indicating the need for greater percentage of the growth recorded in the economy to be translated into economic empowerment opportunities. This will guarantee a significant decline in the number of annual attacks against ships trading in Nigeria.

 

Also, the relationship between pirate attacks against ships and growth in the unemployment rate in Nigeria over the period is such that growth in unemployment rate leads to subsequent growth in the number of attacks against ships trading in Nigeria waters.

 

Recommendations

In the light of the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made

 

  • A significant percentage of the evidences of economic growth been recorded in the economy should be translated into opportunities for economic empowerment of youth populations so as to achieve significant decline in sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in Nigerian waters annually. 

  • A significant portion of the growth in revenue generated from maritime transport sub-sector should be invested in creating opportunities for economic emancipation of the active population involved in piracy activities. This will ensure that a significant decline in attacks is achieved even as the maritime economy continues to grow.

  • Since growing youth unemployment is found to increase sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships trading in Nigeria, massive investment in youth employment and economic empowerment programs is recommended to reverse the increasing trend of youth unemployment in Nigeria and subsequently curtail piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in Nigeria.

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  10. Nwalozie, C.J. (2020). Exploring contemporary sea piracy in Nigeria, the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Guinea. Journal of Transportation Security, 13, 159–178. DOI: 10.1007/s12198-020-00218-9.

  11. Jean, E.R. (2013). Maritime Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships: Exploring the Legal and the Operational Solutions – The Case of Madagascar. United Nations-Nippon Foundation Fellowship Programme, Oceans and Law of the Sea, United Nations, New York.

  12. Essien, B.S. and Adongoi, T. (2015). Sea piracy and security challenges of maritime business operators in Bayelsa State, Nigeria: An empirical study. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 5(2), 213–221.

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  15. Abhyankar, J. (2012). Piracy and Maritime Violence: A Continuing Threat to Maritime Industry. International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) - International Maritime Bureau (IMB).

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The Influence of Economic Growth on Trend of Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery Attacks against Ships in Nigeria © 2026 by Ogwo Nwokeka Eme, Dike Declan N, Nwokedi Theophilus Chinonyerem, Mbachu Justice Chigozie licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
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