In the framework of the confinement fostered by the mitigation policies of both the contagion by the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease, trust in the rulers has focused on their health strategies, as well as economic strategies both in the process of confinement, de-escalation and reactivation of the economy [1]. It is a phenomenon that will impact the nearest elections. In this scenario, the system in which the process of negotiation, mediation, conciliation and arbitration between actors involved in the management and administration of resources and public services is observed is known as governance. In the case of an early electoral contest, governance is a phenomenon that reflects electoral preferences, perceptions of consensus, and voting intentions toward democratic parties, candidates, and systems.

In the case of the effects of the anticipated electoral contest on digital networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Youtube or Instagram, these are assumed as instruments for promoting candidates and political platforms. It is a proselytism that generates expectations and voting intentions based on electoral preferences, perhaps established in traditional media such as television, radio, press or cinema, but when filtered to digital networks they favor a scenario of electoral debate that For the purposes of this study, they allow a diagnosis of the relationship between these determining factors of the elections in the near future.

The objective of this work was to specify a model for the study of coexisting expectations. For this purpose, the theoretical, conceptual and empirical frameworks are exposed in order to subtract the axes, trajectories and relationships between the explanatory variables of the phenomenon, as well as their approach and discussion of results.

Theory of coexisting expectations

In the confinement contexts propitiated by the mitigation of the pandemic both in the contagion of the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease, the theoretical and conceptual frameworks have explained the political consequences based on the surrounding information in the media. of traditional communication such as radio, press and television, as well as electronic ones, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp, Periscope or YouTube [2].

In this vein, the explanatory theories of political expectations are structured in those that account for the power relations to differentiate the rulers and the ruled, establishing inequalities and sentencing control, manipulation, punishment, obedience and conformity versus the approximations of the relationships. Of influence between political and social actors, recognizing symmetries, outlining and anticipating dialogue, reconciliation, agreements and co-responsibility [3].

Social psychology, through the models of reasoned action and planned behavior, have influenced the construction of an information psychology [4]. Both models start from the assumption that behavior is determined by the relationship between beliefs, attitudes, perceptions and intentions [5]. It is a process that, within the framework of the information generated on the Internet, explains consumption decisions based on rational, deliberate, planned and systematic processing.

However, psychosocial models have been modified to adjust their relationships to information processing on the Internet. These are the cases of the Technology Acceptance Model, the Commerce Adoption Model and the Electronic Consumption Model [6]. These models have incorporated the psychosocial variables of beliefs, attitudes, perceptions and intentions that were proposed to explain efficient, effective and effective behavior [7].

Unlike classical attitudinal theories, contemporary utilitarian theories highlight a continuum that goes from risks, uncertainties, contingencies or hazards to their reduction to a minimum expression from which utility emerges as a determinant not only of the adoption of technology, but rather, its adaptation to the environment [8]. Consequently, reasoned action and planned behavior explained up to a certain point the dispositions of users, but it is the theories of adoption and electronic consumption that will qualify and reduce the information to its minimum expression of learning and thus predict the use intensive digital devices and networks.

In summary, the theoretical and conceptual frameworks address political expectations as a result of the similarities and differences between the parties involved, emphasizing power relations at the institutional level or influence relations at the interpersonal level. In such scenarios, sympathizers, adherents or militants resolve their differences in electronic networks in order to establish a public agenda which reflects the imbalances between the parties, but also the wishes of the actors.

Studies of Coexisting Expectations

After the days of confinement, governors and governed establish a public agenda focused on the pandemic, its effects and alternatives for reactivating the economy, but the emergence of Internet users, those who dedicate more than an hour to electronic networks, reveals new mediated relationships by these technologies from which it is possible to notice preferences, trends, prevalence’s or expectations.

Despite the fact that Internet access is concomitant with the increase in users of social networks, these are concentrated on Facebook and Twitter not only for ease of use, but also for the usefulness of their protocols when disseminating personalized information [9]. Social networks are personalized instances of information, but the information disseminated in them requires computational skills, information search and processing skills, as well as storage and dissemination capacities [10].

Consequently, the digital divide not only involves differences between those who access digital media and those who are marginalized or excluded, it connotes differences between Internet users who seek information for their entertainment and Internet users who process information for their knowledge and innovation [11].

By virtue of the fact that Internet users are attached to an academic or professional training system that forces them to search for information and process it in order to show significant learning [12].

The relevance of beliefs understood as general categories of information, extends to the formation of attitudes defined as specific categorizations of information, perceptions of catastrophe risk or perceptions of usefulness of information assumed as expectations that allow anticipating scenarios of uncertainty, as well as and towards the intentions of using the Internet to most likely process the information that is generated [13].

It is the relationships between the psychosocial variables that make their inclusion in the informational psychological models relevant since they explain the processing of information from events far or near the daily lives of Internet users [14]. Thus, the reception of information in real time is a preponderant factor in planning strategies or lifestyles that reduce the impact of disasters.

However, the trend of informational psychological studies is to specify psychosocial variables since beliefs are very general categorizations and could not anticipate specific behaviors, although attitudes are more delimited categorizations , they require perceived information to activate immediate action decisions [15].

Precisely, since intentions are decisive probabilities of carrying out a rational, deliberate, planned and systematic action, they predict the emergence of a behavior, but the information generated on the Internet fosters a more emotional than rational process [16].

That is why so studying the emotional dimensions intentions and rational seems to be more relevant in an unpredictable and immeasurable scenario as they would be electoral contests [17].

In summary, the studies co - existing expectations include:

• The attitudes of actors regarding the handling and communication of a contingency and 

• l as profit expected by the intensive use of technologies, devices and electronic networks such as receiving means of government policies, strategies and programs. Both are the product of a diverse and volatile news scene in which traditional and electronic media are distinguished by their audiences. In addition, to the extent that the confinement is prolonged, the consumption of data and information in traditional or electronic media is disseminated in real time with continuous hours of newscasts or permanent coverage of press conferences, announcements or retransmission of promotional.

Modeling of coexisting expectations and voting intention

From the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical frameworks, it is possible to establish the axes, trajectories and relationships between the variables highlighted in the literature review.

The proposal includes two netizens expectations:

• l I expected benefits of the use of Information Technology and Communication have a direct, positive and significant effect on the intention to vote in favor of transparent government policies mitigation of the pandemic and reactivation economic and 

• l expectations as consensus around the use of Information Technology and Communication favorable to the policy of mitigation of the pandemic will affect direct, positive and significant effect on the intention to vote in favor of transparent governments during confinement and economic recovery . Both are directly, positively and significantly related to the intention to vote in favor of transparent governments in the management of the pandemic and economic reactivation

Utilitarian approaches warn that the expected benefits are the result of a calculation of risks and benefits from which decisions are made. The adoption of electronic technologies, devices and networks affects voting intentions from the information that is disseminated in the official and anti-regime media. In this process of informational contention, the data can be compared, generating utilitarian expectations of the governed towards their authorities. In this way, an Internet user agenda is built in which the axes and topics of discussion are established by the Internet communities to influence the management policies, communication and risk management by the government. The way in which Internet users disseminate their opinions or data is considered by governments and this process is closed in the next elections. It is a sectoral negotiation between Internet users and authorities with the purpose of generating a mechanism for continuous, informal and virtual participation where anonymity is crucial for entrepreneurship and innovation of expressions of rejection or support, repulsion or adherence, criticism or militancy.

In a different trajectory, attitudinal theories rely on the consensual expectations of the parties involved. In this traditional way, the formation and change of attitudes makes it possible to anticipate the vote in favor of governments that opt for less digitized and more mediated communication on television, radio or the press. It is a phenomenon in which the State generates messages in order to provide security and identity to traditional audiences, avoiding the participation of Internet users whom it considers to be a minority. In this different route, political and social actors, public and private sectors, move from the conflict to an agreed change. They even arrive at co-responsibility through symbolic power negotiations such as the prevalence of union, fraternity, cooperation and national solidarity. It is about closing ranks widely removed from the uses and customs of society or the cultural values and norms that distinguish national identity.

While the expected benefits are the result of an informative digitization of pandemic mitigation and economic reactivation, the consensual expectations are the product of the traditional mediatization of information in which the State appeals to national identity and values such as solidarity, fraternity and the cooperation. In the coexistence of such expectations, voting intentions are directly, positively and significantly related, building a scenario of resource optimization and process innovation. It is a political ideal in which Internet users and traditional militants adhere to the policies, strategies and programs of the government if it builds an image of trust, responsibility and scientificity when establishing confinement and justifying its prolongation. In this phenomenon, the optimization of its financial resources to redistribute them to the most urgent sectors and the innovation of its processes to condone or subsidize services and contributions to the most dynamic sectors are both based on coexisting expectations.

Sample. A non-experimental, exploratory and cross-sectional quantitative study was carried out. A non-probabilistic selection was made of 253 students from a public university in the State of Mexico. The inclusion-exclusion criterion was having been written in the computer lab, belonging to a social network and looking for information for the preparation of tasks, papers, practices, exhibitions, dynamics, and thesis or research reports. 120 were women (M = 19.5 years and SD = 3.15 years) and 133 men (M = 22.5 years and SD = 4.26 years).

Instrument. Two scales of perceptions and voting intention from Carreón were used. The Consensual Perceptions Scale included 14 items related to expected benefits and consensus expectations. The Voting Intention Scale included 7 items related to election probabilities based on an electoral preference.

Procedure. The corresponding permission was requested for the application of the instrument in the classroom. Once it was explained to the students that the study would neither positively nor negatively affect their partial or final grades, they proceeded to deliver the survey advising them that they had a maximum of 20 minutes to respond to it. Subsequently, the respondents signed their fully informed consent. The data were captured in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and the Analysis of Structural Moments (AMOS) software in versions 10 and 6.0 respectively.

Analysis. Multivariate analyzes were performed prior to normal distribution, reliability and validity requirements, for which the parameters of kurtosis, alpha and factorial weight were used. Once the psychometric properties were established, the correlations between each of the eight factors with respect to themselves were estimated using the “phi” statistic. The dependency relationships were calculated with the parameter "beta" between the factor and the indicators, as well as the use of the statistic "epsilon" for the relationships between estimation errors of the manifest variables. Finally, the structural model contrast was carried out with the chi square, goodness of fit and residual parameters.

Table 1 shows the descriptive, reliable and valid values for the analysis of the respondents' responses regarding the coexisting expectations and their impact on voting intentions.

Table 1: Descriptionoftheinstrument

Note: Prepared with the study data; R = Reactive, M = Mean, SD = Standard Deviation, A = Cronbach's Alpha removing the value of the item. Method: Main Axes, Rotation: Promax. Adequacy and Sphericity (χ2 = 16.23 (12 gl) p <.05; KMO = .870). F1 = Expected Benefits, F2 = Consensual Expectations, F3 = Voting Intentions

Table 2: Correlations and covariances between factors

Note: Prepared with the study data; M = Mean, SD = Standard Deviation, F1 = Expected Benefits, F2 = Consensual Expectations, F3 = Voting Intent; * p <.01; ** p <.001; *** p <.0001

Observed alpha s higher than the minimum required to establish an internal consistency among the scales, in the case of expectations (alpha 0 7 93) includes two factors: expected benefits (alpha 0, 7 91 and 25% Total variance explained) and expectations consensual (alpha 0, 7 85 17% of the total variance explained). In the case of the intention to vote (alpha of 0, 7, 80 and 8% of the total variance explained).

However, the low correlations between item and factor expressed in factorial weights indicate a simple oblique factorial structure. In other words, the correlation between the factors or dimensions –expected benefits and consensual expectations– of the Consensus Expectations Scale seems to indicate an association between the expected benefits of electoral contests with respect to consensus expectations. In this sense, electoral preferences would be the starting point to activate the voting intention process, since it is consensus expectations such as distrust, discontent, denunciation, responsibility and social division that determine the intention to vote.

In order to be able to observe its relationship structure, the correlations and covariances between the factors were estimated (Table 2).

The resulting structure includes relationships between variables that suggest determination trajectories, although the cumulative percentage of explained variance suggests the inclusion of at least one other factor. The structure of trajectories was observed through an analysis of structural equations.

Both factors influenced the intention to vote, but the expected benefits are the determinants of these probabilities of suffrage in favor of government policies, strategies and programs around the management of the pandemic.

Finally, the fit and residual indicators [χ2 = 214.35 (47gl) p = 0.007; GFI = 0.990; CFI = 0.997; RMSSEA = 0.001] suggest the acceptance of the null hypothesis regarding the correspondence between the theoretical relationships of the variables with respect to the findings.

The objective of the present work was to specify a model for the study of the intention to vote in favor of the assertive management of the pandemic, although the research design limited the results to the sample, the extension of the work to other scenarios is suggested in order to be able to pay for the validity and reliability of the instrument, as well as the empirical testing of the proposed model.

In relation to the theory of coexisting expectations, which maintain that in the event of a risk event, the state generates a vertical communication of authority along with a horizontal motivation of persuasive inclusion where it appeals to civil participation, the present work showed that they are the Expected benefits anticipate the likelihood of voting in favor of mitigation policies, containment strategies and economic reactivation programs. Research lines concerning cost-benefit reasoning will allow observing the possibility of voting in favor of public or citizen security policies, strategies and programs.

In relation to the studies of coexisting expectations in which correlations are reported between expected benefits and consensual expectations provided that government communication is both punitive coercive and inclusive persuasive, the present study has demonstrated this concomitance, although the percentage of variance explained it is higher in expected benefits with respect to consensual expectations. The development of research on the contrast of both factors with respect to behavior in contingent situations will allow anticipating risk management and communication scenarios.

Regarding the modeling of the variables in which coexisting expectations are determinants of the intention to vote in favor of mitigation policies, confinement strategies and economic reactivation programs, this research found the incidence of two factors, one related to expected benefits and another allusive to consensual expectations? Research that proves these findings will make it possible to advance towards the diversification of coexisting expectations to anticipate different risk scenarios close to elections.

Based on an exploratory factorial structure of main axes and with simple and oblique promax rotation in which the correlations between the factors of the Consensus Expectations Scale stand out, this work has provided a provisional model to the study of electoral preferences and their effects on voting intention.

However, the non-experimental design and the non-probabilistic selection limit the results to the sample of students from the public university of the State of Mexico. In this sense, it is expected to carry out the contrasting of the model in a representative sample of students from the Mexican town in order to anticipate the results of the state elections to be held in 2023 and the federal elections of 2024.

However, digital networks as a web of agendas, advertisements, opinions, preferences and intentions represent a small percentage of the electorate that will participate in the aforementioned elections. This is so because unlike traditional media, digital networks not only reproduce information but also produce expectations in potential voters.

Such a difference between the Internet, television, radio, press or cinema makes it necessary to reflect on mass communication studies focused on agenda setting, the framing effect and its consequences on voting intentions. In other words, the study of digital networks supposes a differentiation of sectors even between users of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram with respect to other digital networks.

Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the study of the similarities and differences of Internet users of digital networks with respect to potential voters in the elections in question.

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