Many economies around the world strive for significant economic growth and, as a result, economic development. It may be regarded as a successful set of policies, in large part because it controls the price, supply and quantity of money in an economy in a proportionate manner to the various economic activities CBN [1]. In retrospect, Magbagbeola [2] explained that the financial sector reform strategy was consistent with neoclassical theory, which he believes means that a deregulated (free market) economy is more effective than a planned economy, especially in developing countries like Nigeria where technological progress and market size are spreading. According to Soludo [3], assertions that the banking system was inefficient, characterized by structural and functional flaws and thus incapable of playing a catalytic role in promoting private-sector-led growth resulted in a 13-point banking industry agenda centered on further liberalization of banking businesses to ensure competition, system safety and proactively position the industry to play the role of financial intermediary and economic catalyst. Unfortunately, the benefits of this exercise were short-lived due to the negative effects of the global financial crisis, which affected a segment of the banking industry, causing some banks to. Deccan, defines financial market policy changes and the economic implications of financial reforms as "a deliberate policy response to correct perceived or impending financial crises and subsequent failure." Reforms in the financial industry aim to address issues such as leadership, risk management and operational inefficiencies. Most notably, banking reforms aim to promote economic growth in all of its ramifications, which will eventually improve the economy's performance.

According to Ajayi [4], banking reforms involve several elements that are specific to a particular country based on its economic and political history in order to improve economic and institutional growth and development. Dwivedi [5] Financial sector amendments, according to Ajayi [4], are used to strengthen banks' intermediation role in economic development and through various economic activities ranging from technology to financial inclusion. The policy changes ensure that banks are in a strong position to mobilize large amounts of savings and efficiently allocate these mobilized savings to profitable investments in the form of credit. According to the dual-gap analysis framework, these investments are relevant to a country's development process. The majority of financial reforms focus on increasing capitalization.

According to Ajayi [4], financial reforms in Nigeria are based on the requirement for the current status quo to be readjusted and repositioned in order to achieve a productive and productive state. According to Ajayi [4], financial reforms are primarily motivated by the need to achieve the financial architecture's objectives of consolidation, competition and convergence. According to the empirical studies reviewed, Aurangzeb [6] believes that banking reforms have a significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan. According to Adegbite and Alabi [7], monetary policy is a critical tool that a country can use to maintain import costs and trade balance, both of which are necessary for long-term economic development. According to Fasanya et al. [8], the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has continued to play the traditional role of a central bank, which is the monetary regulatory stock designed to promote social welfare, since its inception in 1959. This role is based on the application of monetary policy, which is typically intended to achieve full employment, rapid economic growth, price stability and external balance according to Adegbite and Alabi [7], monetary policy provides a logical relationship between the variables stipulated to affect the outcomes. The central bank employs these tools to manage the pace of monetary calculation by targeting the rate of interest. According to Fasanya et al. [8], the link includes money supply charging as well as exchange-rate policy. These monetary measures are implemented by the CBN in order to stabilize the country's macroeconomics. Monetary policy, according to Adegbite and Alabi [7], provides a logical relationship between the variables stipulated to affect the outcome. The CBN employs these tools to manage the pace of monetary circulation and to regulate money creation and interest rates in order to maintain economic stability. According to Fasanya et al. [8], the CBN's monetary policy has been dominated by inflation targeting and exchange rate policy, with the assumption that these are necessary tools for achieving macroeconomic objectives.

Idowu [9] examined the extent to which the banking sector meets the consolidation objective using a post-development approach and discovered that there is a significant process of recapitalization and successive acquisition and or procurement fomented by many banks in order to get enrolled with the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and thus get listed (publicly quoted). According to him, the issue of bank ownership has widened and the private sector is being forced to own banks in order to prevent bank failures in Nigeria. The Nigerian banking crisis has been a source of concern for the Central Bank of Nigeria and investors in an attempt to explain how the reforms could be used to spur economic growth, he stated that prior to the reforms, many Nigerians owned some stakes in the banking sector, as opposed to the private ownership that was prevalent in many banks prior to consolidation. He concluded that economic reform theory is broad and spread across the entire neoclassical school of thought.

According to Uzomba et al. the goal of banking sector reform is to achieve a sound, stable, reliable, effective and efficient financial system, which has not been possible in the Nigerian banking system due to the system's incessant crises. In light of this, they conducted a study to address economic development issues in Nigeria through the banking sector. External debt, financial deepening and money supply were used to model banking sector reforms, while unemployment, inflation and poverty levels were considered as economic development issues. In Nigeria, banking initiatives have had a significant impact on addressing some economic development issues such as unemployment and poverty levels. Monetary policy has been used since the Central Bank Act of 1958, according to Adigwe et al. [10].

This role has aided the development of an active money market, in which treasury bills, a financial instrument used for open market operations and raising, have emerged as a prominent earning asset for investors as well as a source of market balancing liquidityAnother popular monetary policy instrument was credit privatisation regulations, which largely fixed the change rates for modules and accumulation commercial bank advances and loans to the private market. In contrast, the sector distribution of bank lending in the CBN guidelines was done to stimulate the important sectors and thus stem inflationary pressure, whereas the arrangement of lending rates at relatively low levels was done primarily to boost growth and investment [10]. Economic growth requires a high level of monetary and fiscal policy in small open economies. As one of its functions, coordination between Nigeria's central banks and the government monetary authorities of Nigeria regulates the stock of money. Economic tools can be used by any government in the world.

Economic stimulus is a set of economic and financial instruments used by the government, through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to stimulate growth by adjusting the value, supply and price of a country's currency in response to the level of economic activity. Any government in the world employs three economic tools. These instruments are pushed through central banks. Monetary policy, fiscal policy and income policy are the tools embedded in public policy. According to Nwoko et al. [11], the authority in Nigeria has always relied on financial policy to achieve economic goals such as workforce, economic growth, balance of payments equilibrium and a relatively stable general price level. Monetary policy is inextricably linked to other aspects of public policy, particularly fiscal and income policies.

Monetary policy, according to Srithilat and Sun [12], is an important component of macroeconomic management in an open economy because its impact on economic variables promotes economic stability and development. In developing countries, it is widely assumed that monetary policy influences macroeconomic variables such as job creation, price stability, GDP growth and balance of payment equilibrium. Since the beginning. Through its various monetary policies, the Federal Reserve Bank of Nigeria plays an important role in the supervision of economic activities. Financial sector reforms have been critical in driving Nigerian monetary policy. According to Umejiaku and Ezie [13], the banking system's ability to intermediate adequate amounts of credit to finance higher economic growth and perform its role in accordance with the CBN policy framework will alleviate repression based on the assumption that higher interest rates boost economic growth. Pre-reform Nigerian financial system policies were known to be very intensive in direct credit, selective credit controls, sustained increase in new bank paid-up capital, strict bank rate influence and preferential treatment of certain sectors in terms of credit economic transactions, according to Umejiaku and Ezie [13]. Nigeria, according to the World Bank Organization, needed to deregulate its financial system and shift from a public narrative investment outlook to a private investment outlook in 1983. According to Umejiaku and Ezie [13], the credit approval liberalization plan was the first in a series of financial reforms in the Nigerian banking sector in 1986. For the purpose of allocating bank credits, a large number of key areas were divided into two categories in 1987: priority and other sectors. Another notable banking sector reform policy measure implemented during this time period was the deregulation of banking licensing. In addition, beginning in January 1987, interest rates were deregulated. Banks were allowed to set their own deposit and loan interest rates, with a 3% spread between deposit and lending rates [13].

According to Umejiaku and Ezie [13], after deregulation, market-determined interest rates ruled until 1991, when lending rates were capped. In 1992 and 1993, free markets were allowed to determine interest rates once more. In 1990, an auction system was implemented to make the treasury bill more appealing, to align the rate with other deregulated money market rates, to reduce the impact of governments' cheap borrowing on inflation and to increase the use of treasury bill rates as an important method of monetary control. New financial institutions have been authorized (quasi-banks and non-banks). As a result, community banks, people's banks and finance houses were established. The goal was to make credit more accessible to community members and to assist low-income earners who run small businesses.

According to Umejiaku and Ezie [13], two decrees, Edict No. 24 of 1991 and Banking Institutions and Other Financial Institutions Edict No. 29 of 1991, provided the CBN with greater monetary policy autonomy as well as regulatory and supervisory powers over deposit money organizations and other financial institutions such as finance companies. The pre-reform policy regulations were then reinstated. The regulatory resurgence began with a moratorium on bank licenses. Savings deposit rates had been liberalized by the second period of 1996, with a prescription for a maximum propagation of 7.5% and thus a skylight on lending rates. In August 1996, the government again liberalized interest rates, but kept the MRR at 13.5%. Banks maintained the maximum lending rate while lowering the interest rate on savings deposits. Deregulating interest rates was part of the process of freeing up the banking system and allowing market forces to prevail, ensuring the efficient allocation of scarce resources and allowing banks to mobilize idle funds. However, when lending rates became unmanageable, this policy was reversed. It is clear that the primary and overarching goal of most developing countries, including Nigeria, is to see their economies undergo a positive paradigm shift. Because economic growth is dependent on capital accumulation or investment, any policy that makes resources available for investment is readily acceptable to developing countries, because the allure of growth is linked to economic stability and economic stability is determined by monetary policy [13]. It should be noted that Nigerian monetary rules have been a source of concern in the country's drive for economic growth. Monetary policy is a financial instrument devised from time to time by regulatory bodies such as Nigeria's central bank to promote economic development. According to Ikubor [14], African countries have embarked on aggressive economic reforms since the 1980s with the goal of increasing and maintaining economic development. According to Ikubor [14], the open market economy option is based on macroeconomic stability, trade openness, a reduced role for government and the implementation of poverty-reduction strategies.

Statement of the Problem 

Nigeria faces stagnant growth, unstable business cycles and economic volatility as an import-dependent economy. This usually results in unemployment, inflation, inefficiency and a balance-of-payments imbalance. Price stability is one of the primary goals of Nigerian monetary policy, according to Adegbite, Tajudeen and Alabi. Nonetheless, despite the apex bank in Nigeria's various monetary regimes over the period, price increases continue to pose a significant threat to the country's industrial growth. Nigeria's inflation rate has been extremely volatile. There have been four major periods of high inflation since the early 1970s, each of which exceeded 30%. Money supply growth is associated with periods of high inflation because money growth is frequently greater than real industrial growth. Because Nigeria has a poor track record of development, the failure of monetary policy to control price volatility has resulted in growth insecurity.

According to Adigwe et al. [10], monetary policy has been used in Nigeria since the Central Bank Act of 1958 charged the apex Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with formulating and implementing monetary policies. This function has aided in the development of an active money market in which treasury bills, a financial tool used for Open Market Operations and federal debt raising, have increased in revenue and earnings, becoming a common source of income for shareholders as well as a source of market balancing liquidityAnother widely used monetary policy tool (by the Bank Negara) was the publication of credit rationing rules, which first established the change rate for the aggregate of commercial bank loans and upfront to the private sector. The government has regulated the economy in some way to improve citizens' welfare by ensuring that resources are allocated productively [11]. The sector-specific share of bank credit in the CBN guidelines, on the other hand, was done to stimulate key sectors and thus stem inflationary pressures, whereas the setting of interest rates at a relatively low level was done primarily to encourage investment and growth. Despite various reforms that have been put in place. So far, Nigeria's banking sector has performed admirably as a driver of economic development. Large interest rate spreads, undue reliance on foreign exchange and its attendant fluctuations, an untenable and frail stake, control environment and managerial weakness resulting in a lack of accounting records disclosure appear to have occurred. Furthermore, the banking system has gone through several reform phases with minor or insignificant impacts in order to meet the challenges posed by liquidity, technical insolvency and operational crises, as well as a lack of public trust in the system.

As a result, it is unclear whether monetary policy has an impact on the Nigerian economy under different financial sector regimes. The goal is to determine both the economic impact of monetary policy and the impact of bank reforms on bank performance.

Objectives of the Study

The general objective of this study is to establish a relationship between economic growth and monetary policy in Nigeria. However, the specific objectives are:

• To investigate the impact of performance of banks on the Nigerian economy

• To examine the relationship between monetary policy and bank reforms in Nigeria

• To examine the relationship between bank reforms and bank performance in Nigeria

Research Hypotheses:

Ho₁: There is no impact of bank performance on the Nigerian economy

Ho₂:  There is no relationship between monetary policy and bank performance in Nigeria

Ho₃:   There is no relationship between bank reforms and bank performance in Nigeria

Theoretical Framework

The Keynesian IS-LM framework serves as the foundation for this research. Monetary policy changes (usually defined as exogenous shifts in monetary aggregates) affect the money supply, which affects interest rates in order to balance demand and supply [15]. Changes in interest rates also have an impact on consumption, which in turn has an impact on output and, eventually, prices.

Modifying the classical theory of money, Keynesians believe that money supply has an indirect effect on GDP via its transmission mechanism. Monetarists agree with Keynes that the economy is not operating at full employment. As a result, they believe that expansionary monetary policy will be beneficial in the long run; they agree with classists that rising money supply will increase inflation; thus, they argue that policy must accommodate increases in GDP. A good monetary policy will lead to long-run sustainable economic growth if it is supplemented by an additional environment of appropriate liquidity, interest rates, robust demand, soft central bank assistance and debt rescheduling. Monetarists believe that monetary policy has a greater impact on economic activity because unexpected changes in the money supply affect output and growth; that is, the money supply must rise unexpectedly for the central bank to promote economic growth. Indeed, they believe that an expansionary fiscal policy benefits government spending. Adefeso and Moboloji [16].

Empirical Reviews

Monetary policy's impact on growth has spawned a slew of empirical studies yielding mixed results using cross-sectional, time series and panel data. Some of these studies are national in nature, while others are global in scope. The following studies have been chosen for review: Using the Ordinary Least Squares Method, Onyeiwu [17] investigates the impact of monetary policy on the Nigerian economy between 1981 and 2008 (OLS). According to the findings, monetary policy, as represented by money supply, has a positive impact on GDP growth and the balance of payments but a negative impact on the rate of inflation. Furthermore, the study's findings support the money-prices-output hypothesis in the Nigerian economy.

Goldsmith, in an attempt to explain the puzzle, emphasizes that financial development occurs primarily during the early stages of economic development, when countries' income levels are low. The findings of Besci and Wang, appear to refute this rationale, claiming that, while financial development occurs and may precede economic growth, it is unclear whether it provides economic causality. Goldsmith's discovery was later confirmed by De Gregor and Guidotti, who note that in the early stages of development, there is a strong correlation between financial development and economic growth; however, in OECD countries, this correlation is reduced or even absent. They also show that as countries become more developed, the impact of financial development on growth weakens, possibly due to measurement issues or because financial intermediaries have a greater impact in less developed countries than in more developed ones. Afangideh, on the other hand, used a three-stage least square estimation technique on data spanning 1970 to 2005, It was discovered that a developed financial system relieves growth financing constraints by increasing bank credit and investment activities, resulting in an increase in output. Agu and Chukwu's findings differ significantly from those of other Nigerian authors. From 1970 to 2005 They used the augmented Granger causality test to determine the direction of causality between financial deepening and economic growth in Nigeria. Their findings revealed evidence to support both demand- and supply-leading hypotheses, depending on the financial deepening variable used.

Research Design

The research design employed in this study is ex-post facto design because the variables used are obtained from secondary sources which cannot be manipulated or controlled but relies on interpretation and observation to return to a conclusion.

Source, Nature and Description of Data

The research utilizes a quantitative approach to empirically investigate the “Impact of Monetary Policy on the level of Economic Activities and Bank Performance under Alternative Financial Sector Regimes”. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as a proxy for Economic Growth in Nigeria and Return on Assets after Tax (ROA) is used as a proxy for Bank Performance while the independent variables are Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Money Supply (M2), Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Interest Rate (INT).

In this study, the data used are time series in nature, from secondary source of Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2021). The data are further described with the use of Table 1.

Specification of Models

Model 1:

ROA=f (MPR,CRR,GDP,INT,U_t)

where:

U_t  =  Error term

The equation of the model:

LnROA=b₀+b₁ Ln₁MPR+Lnb₂CRR+Lnb₃GDP+ Lnb₄INT+U_t

Ln= Natural logarithm of the variables used to smoothen possible scholastic effect from variables at level. b₀ is the constant while b₁-b₅are the coefficient of the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable. U_t is the stochastic error term for the time period covered by the study.

Estimation Techniques

For a linear regression model, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach is frequently used. It is a popular econometric technique for estimating the variable in a linear regression model. While OLS is easily applied to any econometric test due to its Best, Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) properties and is computationally easy. It is crucial to understand the fundamental premises of OLS regression. This is due to the fact that improper usage of OLS assumptions could lead to inaccurate results for the conducted econometric test. OLS assumptions are essential and cannot be overemphasized. It is a popular econometric technique for estimating the variable in a linear regression model. OLS estimators aimed to reduce the total squared errors (a difference between observed values and predicted values). This study therefore used the OLS techniques, having subjected the time series data from 2000 to 2018 to unit root test using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Co-integration Test.

The results of the unit root test, co-integration test and ordinary least square regression.

Unit Root Test

In order to test for unit root, we would make use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit root and is presented in Table 2:

H0:  The series are not stationary. (Presence of unit root or non-stationarity)

H1:  The series are stationary

Table 2 presents the results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in levels: first difference and second difference, taking into consideration the trend of the variables. From the above result, the ADF test statistics are shown in the second column while the probability value (p-value) is shown in the third column. It can be seen that at this level, no variable is stationary. At first difference, four variables become stationary except GDP and ROA because the p-value of their unit root tests is 0.9616 and 0.1404, respectively, which is greater than 5%, so the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.

Table 1: The Description of Data

Table 2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Results

Source: Author’s Computation

Table 3: Results of Cointegration estimate (Trace Statistic)

NOTE:* (**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5 percent significance level. Source: Author’s Computation

Moving forward, after taking the second differences of GDP and ROA, it becomes stationary at I (2). This implies that the variables except GDP and ROA are actually first-difference stationary, attaining stationarity after first differences. Indeed, these variables are integrated at order one, that is, I(1), while GDP and ROA are integrated at order two.

Cointegration Test:

H0:  There is no long run relationship among the variables. (No cointegration)

H1:  There is long run relationship (the variables are cointegrated)

Trace statistics indicates at least two cointegrating equations at 5 percent level of significance. We reported the results of the cointegration tests of equation 2 based on the Pantula principle. For r=0(none), the trace statistic (69.81889) is less than the critical values at both 5 percent significance levels. Thus, we accept the null hypothesis that there are at most r cointegrating vectors or equations. This is step one. 

Second Step; for r≤1 (at most 1), the trace statistic (47.85613) is less than the critical value (54.24487) at 5 percent level of significance. Hence, we accept the null hypothesis that there are at most r=1 cointegrating vectors or equations. 

Third Step: For r≤2 (at most 2), the trace statistic (29.79707) is greater than the critical values (24.95801) at 5% percent levels of significance. Hence, we reject the null hypothesis. 

Fourth step: for r≤3 (at most 3), the trace statistics (15.49471) is greater than the critical value (11.17814) at 5% percent levels of significance. In this case, we do not fail to accept the alternative hypothesis (we do not accept the null hypothesis).  
 

Table 3b: Results of Cointegration (Max-Eigen Statistic)

Source: Author’s Computation

Table 4: Results of T statistic

The result of this fourth step applies to r≤4 (at most 4). The results shown in Table 3a indicated that there are 3 cointegrating equations. This implies that there is a long-run relationship among ROA, MPR,CRR, GDP and INT.

Max-Eigen statistics indicates two cointegrating equations at 5 percent level of significance. We reported the results of the cointegration tests of equation 2 based on the Pantula principle. For r=0 (none), the Max-Eigen statistic (36.86348) is greater than the critical values at both 5 percent significance levels. Thus, we reject the null hypothesis that there are at most r cointegrating vectors or equations. This is step one. 

Second Step; for r≤1 (at most 1), the trace statistic (9.28687) is less than the critical value (27.58434) at 5 percent level of significance. Hence, we accept the null hypothesis that there are at most r=1 cointegrating vectors or equations. 

Third Step: For r≤2 (at most 2), the trace statistic (13.77987) is less than the critical values (21.13162) at 5% percent levels of significance. In this case, we do not fail to reject the alternative hypothesis (we do not reject the null hypothesis). The result of this third step applies to r≤3 and r≤4. The results shown in Table 3b indicated that there are 2cointegrating equations. This implies that there is a long-run relationship among ROA,MPR, CRR,GDP and INT.

Ordinary Least Square Estimate               

Test the relationship between monetary policy and bank reforms in Nigeria as well as the relationship between bank reforms and bank performance in Nigeria.

From the summary of the OLS result, the estimate of the constant is 740.3728 this implies that if all the independent variables are zero, the value of the dependant variable is 740.3728.

The estimate of monetary policy rate is -160.6602 showing there is a direct negative relationship between money supply and return on assets also cash reserve rate at -68.62148 while gross domestic product has a direct positive relationship to return on assets with 0.320780 also interest rate at 117.0825. It can be seen that these variables are able to explain 99% the relationship to gross domestic product. The adjusted coefficient is also 99% implying that the independent variables also explain 99% of the dependant variable. The Durbin Watson statistic is 1.30 showing that there is positive auto correlation. Model 2 shows a negative relationship between monetary policy (monetary policy rate, cash reserve ratio) and bank performance (return on assets after tax), also a positive relationship between bank reform (interest rate) and bank performance exists (Table 4).

The findings of this research suggest that there is a significant positive relationship between money supply (m2) and Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), implying that increase in money supply increases monetary policy rate (MPR). Our results indicated different monetary policy within the period of the study contributed to the expansion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Monetary Policy (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has a negative effect on bank performance, which in turn affects the economy. Bank performance proxied by bank return on assets after tax shows that monetary policy rate and cash reserve ratio have negative relationships with bank performance over the period of study, indicating that an increase in either monetary policy rate or cash reserve ratio would lead to a fall in the bank's performance. Meanwhile, gross domestic product and interest have positive relationships with bank performance, meaning an increase in bank performance would lead to an increase in the economy. Also, an increase in interest rate would lead to positive bank performance.

Policy Recommendations

In light of the results, the following policy recommendations are proffered.

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee should also formulate and implement measures that would keep the interest rate at a level that would not have adverse effects on economic growth both in the short and long runs. The government should also encourage Nigerians to take advantage of programmes that would eventually increase the number of skilled workers in Nigeria in major economic sectors for economic development.

The government should adopt good economic policies that will enhance the GDP and reduce the cash reserve ratio in order to improve bank performance. It is seen that an increase in bank performance would lead to an increase in the economy. Finally, the government needs to establish a performance evaluation framework for reappraising and/or adjusting or readjusting the instruments employed by their policies and programmes. This would help immensely to redirect areas that make significant contributions to economic growth and development. CBN has two economic growth side effects. As a result of the findings, it was established that an increase in interest rates would lead to a decrease in the economy proxied by Gross Domestic Product, while a decrease in interest rates contributes positively to the growth of the economy.

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